The State of Child Care 2025
Challenges and insights from Kansas City Child Care Providers
At Futures First, we listen closely to the early education and care professionals who make it possible for young children to thrive. What we’re hearing right now is concerning.
Our 2025 Child Care Provider Feedback Surveys generated 844 responses from 602 unique providers who shared the mounting challenges they face.
- Infant care has become financially unsustainable, forcing programs to reduce or eliminate these critical slots.
- Enrollment continues to drop, threatening provider viability even as desperate families search for care.
- Most alarming: 37 child care businesses now report high closure risk, jeopardizing approximately 1,280 child care spaces across our region.
This data serves as a guide for everything we do at Futures First — from strengthening programs to building systems that truly support providers and families.
LIKELIHOOD OF CLOSURE
Between our 2025 summer and fall provider check-in surveys, representing 602 unduplicated providers, 37 child care businesses indicated high closure risk (rating 4 or 5), comprised of 23 in-home child care businesses and 14 centers.
This represents approximately 1,280 at-risk child care spaces from survey respondents across Greater Kansas City in 2025 alone. More concerning is the trend: only five of these 37 unduplicated businesses indicated high closure risk in 2024, meaning 32 have newly identified as at-risk in 2025 — indicative of a significant increase in sector instability.
2025 Child Care Capacity at Risk
Providers rated their likelihood of business closure over the next 12 months on a scale of 1 to 5. One represents “extremely unlikely,” and 5 represents “extremely likely.” Data is only representative of survey respondents, and may not represent full closure risk in all categories or counties.
How likely is your business to
close in the next 12 months?
What’s driving that risk?
“I believe [regulatory] changes Kansas has made recently are going to benefit families in finding daycare, but it sure has had some ill effects on my program. In 35 years, I have never had so many openings and so few calls”
– Kansas In-home Provider
“Not enough enrolled kids. I have never had so few families and/or people asking to come.”
– Kansas In-home Provider
THE UNIQUE CHALLENGES OF INFANT CARE
For centers and in-home/family child care providers alike, infant slots are the most challenging to maintain due to smaller child-to-teacher ratios. Centers must employ more staff for infant care, while family child care providers can serve fewer children overall when infants are in their care. This challenge is reflected in our survey data: 63% of providers reported waitlists for children birth to age one — by far the largest of any age group. This leaves just 37% of providers who accept infants with openings, revealing a severe supply-demand mismatch.
The most concerning finding from our fall survey emerged when we asked providers whether they had stopped providing infant care since before the pandemic. Among those not currently serving infants, 35 child care sites (24 family child care providers and 11 centers) previously provided infant care in 2019. This represents an estimated loss of 184 infant slots (based on average capacity) from surveyed providers in the Kansas City Metro since the pandemic — capacity that has not returned.
If you are currently not serving infants, were you serving infants pre-pandemic (2019)?
Provider Voices
“There are not enough people out there willing to do infant care.”
– Missouri In-home Provider
“I feel bad for all the [infants] on the waitlist that we won’t be able to help.”
– Kansas Center Provider
ROLE OF CHILD CARE SUBSIDY
Between our summer and fall 2025 surveys, 602 unduplicated providers answered our question: “Does your program accept state subsidy for child care costs?”
The graph illustrates that family child care providers are less likely to accept subsidy payments from families for care. Furthermore, providers in rural areas are less likely to accept subsidies when compared to suburban and urban providers.
The Fall 2025 survey was the first time we asked providers why they didn’t accept subsidies. This revealed a critical gap in our understanding: among the 160 responses to this question, 26 providers indicated they had previously accepted subsidies but stopped doing so. Beginning in 2026, we will directly ask all survey respondents whether they have ceased accepting subsidies since the pandemic began.
This exodus from the subsidy system is shrinking child care options for families who need assistance most. As providers leave the subsidy system, low-income families face fewer choices and longer waitlists, deepening inequities in access to quality early education.
Provider Voices
“When we previously accepted state subsidy, the state would not pay consistently, causing financial hardship on our business.”
– Missouri Center Provider
“Due to the big shortfall of subsidy not covering the cost of tuition, families receiving subsidy can’t afford to pay the difference”
– Missouri Center Provider
BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
In 2024, we collected 1,192 responses from Greater Kansas City child care providers through quarterly surveys. In 2025, we transitioned to a semiannual model, collecting 844 surveys (433 in summer, 411 in fall). We also conducted a focus group early in the year to provide context and refine our survey approach — a useful tool that will continue to inform our process going forward.
Our ongoing surveys monitor two primary threats facing Kansas and Missouri child care providers: obstacles to achieving optimal capacity and the likelihood of business closure. While earlier surveys focused heavily on staffing challenges — which remain significant — our qualitative data now identifies enrollment gaps as the most pressing issue. In 2025, we expanded data collection to address identified information gaps, including the unique challenges of infant care and child care subsidies. This document summarizes key findings from our 2025 assessment.
SUMMARY
Kansas City is losing child care capacity at an alarming rate. The 37 providers at high closure risk, 184 lost infant slots, and the crumbling subsidy system documented in this report threaten our region’s economic stability and families’ ability to work. Our deepest thanks to the providers who shared their experiences despite overwhelming demands on their time. This data informs everything we do — from supporting providers through crisis to advocating for policy solutions. We need partners, policymakers, and community leaders to act now before more critical infrastructure disappears.